USA

Coldest-ever weather and Trump’s chilling twitter message!
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Coldest-ever weather and Trump’s chilling twitter message!

Published in the Financial Express on January 6, 2018

The coldest-ever weather and President Donald Trump’s twitter message hinting at pursuing a coercive foreign policy in the days ahead heralded the new year of 2018 for the United States.

In his twitter message on January 02 Trump apparently meddled in the internal affairs of Iran in the wake of the on-going protests by the Iranian people against the ruling regime. He has given full support to anti-government protests throughout Iran blaming former President Obama’s policies, saying corruption of Iran’s leadership has been fueled by the benefits of the nuclear deal negotiated by Obama administration. He also suggested he could compel US allies to reimpose sanctions against Iran. As a matter of fact, nuclear deal with Iran is an international agreement among five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. Therefore, it will not affect if United States goes alone against the deal.

At a press briefing, Trump’s Press Secretary Sarah Sander on January 03 said that the White House’s unyielding support for the demonstrators contrasted to the more reticent approach taken by Obama administration in 2009 during protests that became known as the Green Movement. Tens of thousands of Iranians participated in demonstrations in Iran to demand higher wages and to end corruption, apart from questioning the wisdom of Iran’s foreign policy in the Middle East where millions of dollars are being spent. By now, 23 Iranians got killed and hundreds have been put behind the bars. However, President Hassan Rouhani of Iran criticised some actions of the government, which indicated that some of the demands of the protesters were legitimate.

Another drama has unfolded over the issue of nuclearisation of North Korea under the very nose of President Trump. North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un has caused a stir the other day by saying that he had the nuclear button on his desk and that the entire United States was within its range, but he would not initiate attack unless North Korea faced any threat of attack. On the other hand, President Donald Trump in a twitter message on January 02 said that he too has his nuclear button on his desk, and it is more powerful and the button works. In fact, US President has no button on his desk unless he is authorized by the Congress to declare war.

Meanwhile, in a televised New Year message Kim Jong Un has made a conciliatory move to have dialogue with South Korea, an ally of the United States in Korean Peninsula. Presidential spokesperson from South Korea welcomed the proposal to hold talks about the Winter Olympic to be held in South Korea. Winter Olympic would be held in Pyeongching, a city about 50 miles off from the border dividing the Korean peninsula.

A dramatic development has taken place on another front. This relates to Pakistan. President Trump declared to cut foreign aid to Pakistan, amounting to $255 million, to punish Pakistan for the alleged ‘deceit and fraudulent tactics’ adopted by it with regard to terrorist organizations. Trump said “the United States had foolishly given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They gave safe haven to terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan….” Pakistan, on the other hand, said the remark by US leadership was completely incomprehensible as it contradicted facts.

Since President Trump’s declaration of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, reaction from around the world has gone wild against him. As of now, only Guatemala has agreed to go along with the US decision to shift its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Now, President Trump in a twitter threatened to cut aid to Palestine in view of President Mahmood Abbas’s threat to disassociate Trump administration from negotiation on the Palestine-Israel issue. While threatening to cut aid, Trump said there was no reason why Washington should make any of the ‘massive future payments’ when the Palestinians were no longer willing to talk peace. It may be recalled that Mahmood Abbas said in Paris on December 23 that Palestinians would not accept any peace plan from the United States, while French President Macron declared that the US had marginalized itself in Israel-Palestine conflict. Having seen US President’s coercive diplomacy, Israel is making another unilateral move towards tightening its grip on Jerusalem. Israeli Parliament enacted a law on January 02 in this regard, while Israel’s ruling party unanimously voted to apply the law to Jewish settlers in the West Bank. PLO secretary general Saeb Erekat, who was the main negotiator with Israel in recent days, criticized President Trump of dictating negotiation.

Meanwhile, US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley threatened to slash funding to the United Nations Palestine Refugee Agency (UNRWA) if the Palestinians refused to engage in peace negotiations. Established in 1949, UNRWA has been providing financial assistance to Palestinian refugees in Lebanon and Jordan, in particular. It is funded by voluntary contributions of the member countries of the UN as well as of individuals.

Trump will visit Asia when China is rising and North Korea intransigent
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Trump will visit Asia when China is rising and North Korea intransigent

Published in the Financial Express on October 31, 2017

Donald Trump will undertake his first visit to Asia, as the President of the USA, from November 03 to November 14. As announced by the White House, President Trump, accompanied by First Lady Melanie, will make a 12-day visit to Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam and the Philippines to persuade the leaders of these countries to put pressure on North Korea to curb its nuclear weapons programme and make the region a demilitarised zone.

Trump will apparently face difficulties in pursuing this goal in view of his past stance. He exchanged   inflammatory insults with North Korean leader  Kim Jung-Un and criticised President of South Korea Moon Jae-in for his conciliatory gesture towards North Korea and his readiness to hold dialogue with his northern neighbour. Trump threatened to cut trade deal with China which has already backfired.

Kim Jung-Un did not abandon nuclear weapons programme despite new economic sanctions imposed by the UN on North Korea following its sixth launching of nuclear device in the first week of September.

Foreign policy of North Korea took the present shape following NATO’s bombing of Serbia in 1999, in total disregard of the 1995 Dayton agreement to put an end to the three-and-a-half-year-long Bosnia war. Kosovo declared independence after the attack of Serbia by NATO with the instigation of the United States. Germany also joined in the chorus for the first time after its constitutional court allowed its armed forces in 1993 to participate in fighting outside Germany. The negative precedent set by NATO in Kosovo makes North Korea distrust the United States.

Another negative example was set by NATO and US when they bombed Libya as the Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi gave up nuclear programme.

Against this backdrop, former President Jimmy Carter, who is now 93, has expressed his willingness, during talks with Park Han-Shik, a Professor of International Relations at Georgia University, in September this year, to mediate between the United States and North Korea to avert a nuclear war and save the world from any catastrophic disaster. President Jimmy Carter had been to North Korea in 1994 to negotiate with Kim Il-sung, grandfather of Kim Jung-Un, as an envoy of President Bill Clinton to shore up denuclearisation talks. In 2010, Jimmy Carter again visited North Korea to negotiate release of a jailed American.

In spite of a request by the White House to keep his mouth shut, President Jimmy Carter in an article to the Washington Post on October 04  wrote  that, the North Korean situation is the “most existential threat to the world peace and ask to implore Washington and Pyongyang to find a peaceful way to ease the escalating tension and reach a lasting peaceful agreement.” Jimmy Carter obviously wants to finish the task of denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula without having a second Korean war.

During his Asian tour, President Trump will also attend Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Vietnam, apart from the summit of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Manila.

ASIAN SCENARIO: Meanwhile, Trump has threatened to walk away from  the 2015 international nuclear agreement with Iran. If he carries out his threat, it will be a disaster indeed. Iran would be placed on carte blanche to resume nuclear activities without constraint. Trump’s national security team, including Secretary of State, Defence Secretary and Chairman of Joint Chief of Staff, supported the 2015deal. Meanwhile, Iran has expanded its sphere of influence in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Syria, Lebanon and to some extent in Bahrain where majority population are Shiites. Russia is assisting Iran while Turkey, only Muslim country in NATO alliance, also joined hand with Iran following declaration of vote for independence by leader of Kurdish autonomous region in North of Iraq.

In Asia, China has become leading military and economic power. By renewing old Silk Road diplomacy China has expanded its sphere of influence in Asia. Similarly, Russia has also joined hands with China in the region, apart from Russia’s Eurasian economic union.

As for Afghanistan, President  Trump’s strategy would not succeed by deploying more troops. Cooperation between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a sine quo non-to stop Taliban rebellion. Over the last 16 years, war in Afghanistan has become the longest and costliest operation of the army of the United States. By now major portion of Afghanistan is under control of Taliban.  Quadrilateral Coordination Group, which comprises of Afghanistan (including Taliban), China, Pakistan and United States, should be revived to pave the way for peace in Afghanistan.

It will be interesting to watch the development in Asia following the visit of the continent by President Trump, against the backdrop of a tense situation in the Korean peninsula over the nuclear programme of North Korea.